It's been a while, with some system issues taking up most of my time, but I'm back with (hopefully) regular updates again.

The System B model has been performing well over the past month, with our core position in Copper continuing to help our performance numbers. Virtually no positions have changed since our last post on 7/29, with several exceptions. We covered our short in Cotton on 8/3, for a gain of $3,365, and we sold our long Crude position on 8/14 for a loss of $3,850. Finally, yesterday, we sold 1 Contract of cotton on the close (again).

Good luck and have a great evening!

I will be out of the Office for two week starting Tuesday, 1 August. I will update all trades when I return on the 15th.

This morning's GDP report seemed to cheer US stock and bond markets, raising expectations that the Fed is either done tightening, or very close to being done. It is an interesting sign that reports of a slowdown in growth combined with the highest core inflation rate since 1994 could have the positive reaction that it did.

In other markets, Copper caught a late day bid resulting from nervousness ahead of the Escondida copper mine strike (the vote should be tallied by tonight, but the earliest a strike would happen would be Aug 7th). The grains didn't do much, but there were reports in the market about a widening problem in Florida with Asian Soybean Rust. Gold rallied, Silver was down on the day.

Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in ES, and that is what we saw. We put on one trade in the morning pop, and rode it all the way to our 4:00 exit. Monday we are looking for a Neutral day in both contracts.

Today's TNR trade:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price		Contracts	P/L
Sell	10:50	1502.75	ES	Cover	16:00	1487.50		2	$578.00

System B positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	-1	$606	42
@FV.P	0	$0	0		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$5,980	75
@JY.P	-1	-$2,038	7		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-4	-$200	5		@HG.P	2	$81,475	289
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$4,728	48
@S.P	-3	$1,188	7		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$91,739
		Total Closed Trades			-$56
		Total			$91,684

Good luck, and have a relaxing weekend!

Let's see... we have Nigerian unrest in addition to the ongoing situation in the middle east combining to prop up crude today... Threats of a strike or walk-out in a south american copper mine helping out copper prices... continued good (growing) weather in the mid-west hitting soybean prices... and the normal uncertainty around the U.S. economy playing havoc with the dollar and U.S. equities.

Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in ES and NQ, and we finally got what we were looking for. We hit quite a slump in July, but maybe this is the end of it. Tomorrow we are looking for another Trending day in ES, and Neutral in NQ.

Today's TNR Trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price		Contracts	P/L
Sell	10:50	1274.50	ES	Cover	16:00	1268.25		2	$593.00
Buy	09:55	1511.50	NQ	Sell	10:50	1502.75		2	-$382.00
Sell	10:50	1502.75	NQ	Cover	16:00	1487.50		2	$578.00

System B positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	-1	$1,581	41
@FV.P	0	$0	0		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$6,190	74
@JY.P	-1	-$1,000	6		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-4	-$300	4		@HG.P	2	$77,950	288
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$4,420	47
@S.P	-3	$1,563	6		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$90,404
		Total Closed Trades			-$56
		Total			$90,348

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Rains and promise of cooler weather in the midwest helped to deflate grain prices today. Also, hawkish comments coming out of Japan put the dollar into a bit of a tailspin, and bonds resumed their steady march upward. The precious metals rallied, but Copper couldn't keep up, closing below yesterday's mark. Try this or this.

Our TNR model wanted a trending day in NQ today, but it looked much more like a reversion day. Tomorrow we are looking for a Trending day in both ES and NQ.

Today's TNR trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price		Contracts	P/L
Sell	09:40	1491.50	NQ	Cover	12:30	1497.50		2	-$272.00
Buy	12:30	1497.50	NQ	Sell	16:00	1498.75		2	$18.00

Today's TNR P/L: -$254
YTD TNR P/L: $5651

System B open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	-1	$2,069	40
@FV.P	0	$0	0		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$6,610	73
@JY.P	-1	-$625	5		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-4	$50	3		@HG.P	2	$76,500	287
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$4,530	46
@S.P	-3	$400	5		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$89,534
		Total Closed Trades			-$56
		Total			$89,478

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Copper rallied and Crude had kind of a weak showing today. US Treasuries sold of today, but the dollar was strong across the board. Corn and Soybeans opened real strong, but gave almost all of the morning gains up by the close, while Wheat was weak all day. Lumber faded again. Not much of a real pattern in any of our markets right now, just a lot of give and take. Maybe its just those summer doldrums. Even the VIX is settling down to the levels we saw prior to the latest outbreak of mid-east hostilities.

Our TNR model was calling for a reversion day in ES, but the late day rally did us in again. We started the day with two money-makers, but wound up getting stopped out for a loss on the day. Tomorrow we are calling for a neutral day in ES and a Trending day in NQ.

Today's TNR Trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price		Contracts	P/L
Sell	10:05	1268.00	ES	Cover	10:40	1266.25		2	$143.00
Buy	10:40	1266.25	ES	Sell	12:35	1266.75		2	$18.00
Sell	12:35	1266.75	ES	Cover	15:20	1273.50		2	-$707.00

Daily TNR P/L: -$546
YTD TNR P/L: $5905

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	-1	$2,219	39
@FV.P	0	$0	0		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$6,520	72
@JY.P	-1	$163	4		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-4	-$650	2		@HG.P	2	$77,075	286
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$4,684	45
@S.P	-3	-$125	4		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$89,885
		Total Closed Trades			-$56
		Total			$89,830

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Crude started the day with a $73 handle and that got the equity market's juices flowing. No one wants to miss that countertrend rally when things settle down in the mideast, and with Condi's surprise visit to Beruit it looked like something was happening. We ended the day with Crude trading well above $75, but equities were able to sustain the rally, finishing the day quite strong.

Our TNR model was looking for a Trending day in NQ, but we reversed out of our long at the mid-day sell-off. When the rally started back up in earnest we were on the wrong side, and were stopped out with a money management stop. Tomorrow we are looking for a reversion day in ES and a neutral day in NQ.

Today's TNR Trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price		Contracts	P/L
Buy	09:50	1474.25	NQ	Sell	13:10	1478.00		2	$118.00
Sell	13:10	1478.00	NQ	Cover	15:15	1489.75		2	-$502.00

Today's total P/L: -$384
YTD TNR Total P/L: $6451


Our open System B trades:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	-1	$2,613	38
@FV.P	0	$0	0		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$5,365	71
@JY.P	-1	-$150	3		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-4	-$550	1		@HG.P	2	$73,125	285
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$4,552	44
@S.P	-3	$175	3		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$85,130
		Total Closed Trades			-$56
		Total			$85,074

Good luck, and have a great evening!

It was a pretty tough week for our models - Copper slid hard, the bonds rallied (not good for our short position) and even Cotton moved against us. On the plus side, our Lumber position continues to gain ground and our Soybean short moved decidedly in our favor today.

The continued strength in Bonds have finally taken its toll. We covered our Five year note position (4 contracts) and our Ten year note position (2 contracts) today at the close.

In addition, the continued grain weakness has us selling short 4 contracts of September Corn today at the close.

All of these new positions will be reflected in Monday's reports.

Our TNR model had another tough day, getting short first thing in the morning, and then reversing long, only to be whipsawed down and stopped out at 12:50.

Today's trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price		Contracts	P/L
Sell	09:45	1254.25	ES	Cover	11:00	1252.00		2	$193.00
Buy	11:00	1252.00	ES	Sell	12:50	1245.50		2	-$682.00

Today's P/L: -$489
TNR YTD P/L : $6833

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$950	61		@KC.P	-1	$2,031	37
@FV.P	-4	$5,800	118		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$6,100	70
@JY.P	-1	-$738	2		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$70,175	284
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$4,068	43
@S.P	-3	$1,113	2		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$87,599
		Total Closed Trades			-$4,506
		Total			$83,094